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Treasurys Move Sideways Ahead Of Jobs, Inflation Data

And we’ve written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? There’s a central bank that thinks they’ve achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. We talked about high yield bonds; we talked about some of the risks that markets have to face. And so, if there are things that we feel pretty sure about, there’ve got to be things where we’re either not sure or parts of the market that really pose the most risk.

• Weak job data and deepening AI anxiety pushed the S&P 500 into the red for the year.
• But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners.
• BlackRock’s purpose is to help more and more people experience financial well-being.
• For markets, a more favorable policy and macro environment is likely to benefit risk assets, with U.S. stocks outperforming global peers.
• So, what’s your view on global growth for the year ahead?
• I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there’s something kind of durable there.

Arm Earnings: Data Centers Becoming Increasingly Important For The Growth Story

Meanwhile, high-yield corporate bonds are likely to outperform investment grade debt given that high-yield is relatively insulated from a spike in AI-related issuance. The significant spike in debt issuance by the tech sector should result in wider U.S. investment grade spreads. Of the estimated $3 trillion in data center-related capex that Morgan Stanley expects to see, less than 20% has been deployed to date. Although the dollar should continue weakening through the first half of 2026, a rebound is likely around the second quarter, marking the end of its bear market.

An Equity Investor’s Guide To 2026

So, what’s your view on global growth for the year ahead? Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. And tomorrow, we’ll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. I really don’t think that latter version of the world is a big risk. But even there, we have got to remember that the committee is a committee and that’s how policy is decided.

Research Quarterly: Fixed Income – Issuance And Trading

And historically late cycle expansions see investment grade outperforming high yield inequities, with bonds eventually leading returns. Given, I think there’s still rational belief in that policy triumvirate that we touched on earlier, that can still be supportive of risk. In our economic forecast, we also included a bunch of different alternate scenarios because I just see that much uncertainty in the global economy. I think very much like U.S. equities, we believe that the asset class can benefit from the combination of monetary deregulation policy.

Markets Brief: Key Earnings On Deck This Week, “destructive” Tariff Threats, Plus Watching Signs Of Stock Rotation

Solid global growth gives emerging market economies a stable backdrop even with sections of episodic, policy-driven volatility. Fixed-income markets may rally in the first half of 2026 as central banks pivot from inflation control to equilibrium management. European and emerging market equities aren’t likely to benefit from similar tailwinds that are boosting U.S. stocks. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. So, if I asked you then, where do you see the biggest risk for investors in markets next year, what would you say? And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks.

How Tariffs Could Impact Equity Markets: Building Scenarios

Spending by households, spending by businesses was strong. But you know, I think if sentiment does overheat then our allocation tilt towards cyclicals and beta would be wrong. Underlying our equities over credit over rates allocation is some revival in animal spirits, but it’s not the kind of irrational exuberance that marks the end of cycle in our view. But I think the other risk here actually is if animal spirits run a bit too hot.

• Carry remains a key driver for credit returns, but dispersion should rise.
• We have lengthened our tactical investment horizon back to six to 12 months.
• Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in U.S. dollars, and the rest in local currencies.
• But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down.

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But Everestex reviews the BoJ looks like they’re set to raise rates again in December. Japan is the developed market central bank that’s hiking. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it’s tepid. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over.

• Curve steepening remains our high conviction call, especially two stents curve.
• Our credit and securitized credit strategists see data center financing in 2026 dominated by investment rate issuance.
• Meanwhile, high-yield corporate bonds are likely to outperform investment grade debt given that high-yield is relatively insulated from a spike in AI-related issuance.
• We’re watching whether early‑year price pressures will be contained after strong core inflation in January.